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What's the probability of getting a wildpad from a myst box?

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#1 AlexINF

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Posted 31 December 2015 - 12:32 PM

I've been thinking and doing some math calculations. I got stuck with this question. What's the probability of getting a wildpad from a myst box?

 

Let's get a percentage!

 

 

Okay, I did some experiments, and I got that there's a 1/300 possibility of getting the rare mode!

That's 1 / 300 * 100: The porcentage of getting the rare mode is 0.3333%! (Approx)

Wow, that's such a lottery!

 

But, my question remains, and the percentage of getting a wildpad?

 

Let's say that you can get 2 items from the rare mode. If we say that the percent of getting them is the same, We get that the percentage of getting a wildpad from a myst box is 0,166666667%! (Approx)

 

So, how many myst boxes should we buy for getting a wildpad?

I did some tests with scratch and some plans. 

For getting a wildpad you need to buy approx... 2545024 boxes!

 

How many gold wasted?

Well, that's easy, we do 2545024 * 3750, and we get... 9543840000!!

How many gold is that? Well... 9.543.840.000 30a83899d43b156384be84db854210fd.png 10B in UK, or 10.000B in USA.

And... How many $ is that? Well, the higher plat pack shows $199.99 (200$) For 50,000g.

We need to do 9.543.840.000 / 50,000 * 200 . That's... ~38.175.360$!! (38M)

dollar-bills.jpg

 

Heh. Now you know why the myst box has been implemented. :P



#2 Kralereth

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Posted 31 December 2015 - 03:48 PM

I highly doubt that the probability of getting rare mode is only 1/300, did you open 300 mystboxes to test this?
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#3 Starmanfan

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Posted 31 December 2015 - 06:59 PM

I've been thinking and doing some math calculations. I got stuck with this question. What's the probability of getting a wildpad from a myst box?

 

Let's get a percentage!

 

 

Okay, I did some experiments, and I got that there's a 1/300 possibility of getting the rare mode!

That's 100 / 300: The porcentage of getting the rare mode is 0.3333%! (Approx)

Wow, that's such a lottery!

 

But, my question remains, and the percentage of getting a wildpad?

 

Let's say that you can get 2 items from the rare mode. If we say that the percent of getting them is the same, We get that the percentage of getting a wildpad from a myst box is 0,166666667%! (Approx)

 

So, how many myst boxes should we buy for getting a wildpad?

I did some tests with scratch and some plans. 

For getting a wildpad you need to buy approx... 2545024 boxes!

 

How many gold wasted?

Well, that's easy, we do 2545024 * 3750, and we get... 9543840000!!

How many gold is that? Well... 9.543.840.000 30a83899d43b156384be84db854210fd.png 10B in UK, or 10.000B in USA.

And... How many $ is that? Well, the higher plat pack shows $199.99 (200$) For 50,000g.

We need to do 9.543.840.000 / 50,000 * 200 . That's... ~38.175.360$!! (38M)

dollar-bills.jpg

 

Heh. Now you know why the myst box has been implemented. :P

I got a wildepad on my first mysbox, thank you very much.


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#4 zeRenity23

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Posted 01 January 2016 - 12:39 AM

Argh, i hate numbers
raed dis u esxy baest

#5 Mememaster_Ramos

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Posted 01 January 2016 - 10:08 AM

Let's just say it's a random chance.

 

Check mate Maths, you never been useful to me.



#6 AlexINF

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Posted 03 January 2016 - 05:57 PM

I highly doubt that the probability of getting rare mode is only 1/300, did you open 300 mystboxes to test this?

No, but I checked some stuff and code.


I got a wildepad on my first mysbox, thank you very much.

Yeah, I say that the percent is 0,166666667%, but I didn't say "You never get wildepads"



#7 madman

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Posted 03 January 2016 - 11:10 PM

"

Okay, I did some experiments, and I got that there's a 1/300 possibility of getting the rare mode!

That's 100 / 300: The porcentage of getting the rare mode is 0.3333%! (Approx)

Wow, that's such a lottery!"

you said the possibility of getting the rare mode is 1/300 but then u say thats 100/300. what do u mean? if there was a 1/300 chance of getting a rare mode that means its a 0.00333% chance


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#8 Kralereth

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Posted 03 January 2016 - 11:33 PM

"
Okay, I did some experiments, and I got that there's a 1/300 possibility of getting the rare mode!
That's 100 / 300: The porcentage of getting the rare mode is 0.3333%! (Approx)
Wow, that's such a lottery!"
you said the possibility of getting the rare mode is 1/300 but then u say thats 100/300. what do u mean? if there was a 1/300 chance of getting a rare mode that means its a 0.00333% chance

1/3 = 33.3333%. 1/30 = 3.3333%. 1/300 = 0.3333%
Although I don't get why he proceeded to say 100/300...
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#9 madman

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Posted 04 January 2016 - 03:12 AM

1/3 = 33.3333%. 1/30 = 3.3333%. 1/300 = 0.3333%
Although I don't get why he proceeded to say 100/300...

when using decimals i meant it as in 1=100%, not 100=100% lol


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#10 AlexINF

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Posted 04 January 2016 - 10:14 AM

"

Okay, I did some experiments, and I got that there's a 1/300 possibility of getting the rare mode!

That's 100 / 300: The porcentage of getting the rare mode is 0.3333%! (Approx)

Wow, that's such a lottery!"

you said the possibility of getting the rare mode is 1/300 but then u say thats 100/300. what do u mean? if there was a 1/300 chance of getting a rare mode that means its a 0.00333% chance

To get the percent of one fraction, you need to do x / y * 100.

x = 1, y = 300.

So, you can do x * 100 first, and you get 100/300.

 

Althrough, it's the same, because 1 / 300 * 100 == 100 / 300.



#11 Prince

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Posted 11 February 2016 - 07:42 AM

I'm 100% sure that its much easier or your math is flawed. If the chances were THAT low then there wouldn't even be one in the game yet as I'm pretty sure people haven't bought 2.5 million mystery boxes in all. That would mean that every user would've had to have bought roughly 5 mystery boxes which is most definitely not the case.

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